A private firm navigating the unraveling of the post-1945 liberal order — guided by deep geopolitical research and a structural view of the decade ahead.
We are living through a hegemonic transition on the order of the shifts from Dutch to British, then British to American, primacy. The era of deepening economic integration, U.S.-led security guarantees, and institutional cooperation is over.
Global institutions are decaying just as the challenges they were built for — climate, debt, conflict — come to a head. The world remains deeply interdependent, yet states are quietly positioning for confrontation. That tension produces latent mobilization — the slow weaponization of the economy.
States now intervene in trade, finance, and technology not to maximize GDP but to secure strategic autonomy. Five self-reinforcing flywheels — each a feedback loop with its own acceleration signal — are reshaping the global capital landscape.
Traditional assets are priced for efficiency. We study how they re-price for security.
Self-reinforcing feedback loops that create path dependencies toward conflict. We track their acceleration through structured, probabilistic research.
Tariffs shelter strategic sectors. Subsidies boost domestic capacity. Export controls hobble rivals.
Industrial-policy spend · Defense capex · Export-control list expansions.
AI race intensifies. Chip controls concentrate compute. First-mover advantage compounds. The next round of controls follows.
Fab capacity · GPU export-license actions · Hyperscaler capex · Grid-power siting.
Institutional paralysis at the WTO. Minilateral trade clubs proliferate. Friend-shoring hard-wires the bloc boundary.
Bilateral trade-agreement count · Supply-chain re-routing.
Climate stress creates resource scarcity. Nations hoard via export bans. Cooperation breaks down.
Critical-mineral export bans · Stockpiling · Energy-import dependency shifts.
Digital sovereignty fragments information ecosystems. Cognitive warfare and AI disinformation erode trust. State and platform controls tighten.
Disinformation incidents · Election-integrity disputes · Digital-sovereignty laws.
The firm's research is built top-down from the Latent Mobilization thesis and validated bottom-up by systematic, regime-walk-forward methodology. The result is a disciplined research discipline for thinking about a specific worldview.
A worldview-driven approach to identifying industries structurally aligned with the transition and industries structurally challenged by it.
Cross-sectional research methodology that ranks companies on quality, distress, and stability characteristics, validated on regime-walk-forward research windows.
The conceptual five-flywheel framework is checked against empirical research; framework weighting follows the data rather than equal-weight intuition.
52 dated, probability-weighted forecasts that operationalize the thesis — 45 confirming, 7 disconfirming — published openly as a research discipline.
Research produced in-house, in dialogue with a standing board of experts across geoeconomics, defense, and industrial policy.